Борис Романов
Anna-Anastaia: the old and new versions and discussion
THE EXAMPLE (the trial in the case of Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky):
http://www.medinform.biz/stat1.php?id=24422
DNA identification was used in a U.S. court in a case of U.S. President Bill Clinton. Traces of semen (sperm) on the dress of Monica Lewinsky and President Clinton's blood were the source material for comparison. DNA (extracted from these samples) were compared to 7 loci (a term referring to the database size of the population-genetic analysis). This analysis showed that the probability of accidental coincidence is 1 in 43,000, – so the chances of correct identification (likelihood ratio) was 43 000:1.
Now note: The Court (Commission of Experts on the court DNA tests) considered this figure (43000:1) as clearly inadequate (too small). There were appointed as an additional examination yet of 7 other loci (the original base for a population-genetic analysis was expanded). The total probability of random coincidence was 1 in 7.87 trillion, which is three orders of magnitude than the world's population. This DNA likelihood ratio convinced the court that the sperm could belong only to Clinton and no one another man in the world.
Generally recommending in the U.S. the accuracy of DNA identification (DNA likelihood ratio) should be such what the corresponding genotype was unique in the population, which numbered are on a rank (in 10 times) more of magnitude than the world's population. Only such an accuracy ( DNA likelihood ratio) is considered in U.S. courts as the sufficient guarantee of accurate identification by DNA tests.
So, (AA/FS)'s DNA likelihood ratio [4100 : 1 /and 16500:1/] is absolutely inadequate (too small). Let me explain a little more detail:
The DNA likelihood ratio is 4100 times more likely that AA was FS than that she was not.What does this mean? This means that statistically among every 4100 people (randomly selected for DNA testing), there is one person whose DNA will match with the DNA of FS (and of her relatives). It means that (virtually) into every major skyscraper (where about 4100 people live in), there is one person whose DNA matches the DNA of FS. Or, in other words: in every village with a population of about 4100 people there is minimum one person whose DNA would give a match with DNA of FS.
It goes without saying that I am absolutely not questioning a professionalism (proficient) and scientific honesty and integrity of Dr. Michael Coble. We are not talking about it, but about the scope of the initial database population genetics, which he possessed when performing DNA tests of A. Anderson and F.Shanzkowska, as well as about the conditions of storage of tissue (and hair of AA) samples prior to their transfer to Dr. M. Coble.
Greg King wrote on their web-forum on Jan. 16, 2011 (at web-forum ColdHarbor):
>>Well, I am IGNORING all computations as I am a complete dunce when it comes to math.<< (large print of the G. King)
I told him then: However, it is your misfortune, and that's your problem, Greg King!
Of course, I think (I hope and I want to believe) that Greg King and Penny Wilson wrote this book in a state of sincere (honest) mistake (and being blinded a glare of the "sacred cow" of DNA tests in 1994 and 2010). But this does not change the essence in full and the essence of their book «The Resurrection of the Romanovs: Anastasia, Anna Anderson, and the World's Greatest Royal Mystery».
In any case, in fact, this book not only has some historical errors, but in King&Wilson's efforts to discredit all the witnesses in favour of Anna Anderson and the expert witnesses at the Hamburg trial, they discredit themselves.
Cinderella's glass slippers of Grand Duchess Anastasia
Very rare congenital deformation of feet "hallux valgus" of Anna Anderson (AA) and Anastasia Nickolaevna Romanova (ANR) puts a fat point in fierce disputes of supporters and opponents of Anna Anderson. In a fairy tale the princess was found out through glass slipper but if in a fairy tale the Prince has found out the Cinderella, in the life of Anna-Anastasia all has taken place on the contrary, and till now, in almost 90 years from appearance-occurrence of Anna-Anastasia in Berlin, even the significant part of members of the House of Romanovs does not recognize, that Anna Anderson was the rescued on July, 17, 1918 GD Anastasia. Fierce disputes on Anna Anderson's riddle proceed till now …
It is surprisingly that all knew about a rarity of this orthopedic disease, but until recently it occurred to nobody to address to experts-orthopedists and to learn exact medical statistics. Only in 2007 year an unknown engineer from Ekaterinburg (Vladimir Momot, his article was published in L-A newspaper “Panorama” in February, 2007) has made it. So, I cite:
